구글이 캘리포니아 자동차국에 제출한 자율모드해제 보고서의 의미

구글이 캘리포니아 자동차국에 제출한 자율모드해제 보고서의 의미^^

 

2017년 1월 25일자로, 미국 캘리포니아주의 자동자국(DMV)에서 자율주행테스트를 허가 받은 기업은 Google, Tesla, Ford, BMW 등 총 21개 기업인데(Apple은 아직 허가를 받지 못했음, 올해 받을 것으로 예상), 이들은 매년 12월 1일에서 그 다음해 11월 30일까지 테스트한 결과를 그 다음해 1월 1일까지 자동차국에 보고해야 하는 마감 시간에 맞추어, 2017년에는 Google 등 총 11개 기업이 제출한 '자율주행 운행 중 자율주행모드해제 보고서(Self-Driving Car Testing Report on Disengagements of Autonomous Mode)'를 받아 2017년 1월 13일 공개했다. 이중 Honda와 VW은 아예 테스트를 하지 않았다. 보고서를 제출한 9개 기업 중 구글의 보고서가 최고이다.

 

구글은 2015년의 테스트에서 자율모드주행이 424,331마일(80%)에서 2016년에는 635,868마일(95%)으로 신뢰도를 높였고, 자율주행모드해제건수도 341건에서 124건으로 낮추었으며, 1000마일 당 해제건수도 0.8에서 0.2로 낮추었다. 구글은 2015년에 반자율차 49대에서 2016년에는 60대로 테스트했다. 9개 기업의 총 해제건수는 2,578건 이었다. 이것은 무엇을 의미하는 가하면 구글을 제외한 다른 기업들은 아직 멀었다는 것이다. 다른 기업들은 형편 없었다. 한번 보시지요^^

 

Spectrum.IEEE - The 2,578 Problems With Self-Driving Cars(02 Feb 2017)

http://spectrum.ieee.org/…/the-2578-problems-with-self-driv…

DMV.CA.GOV - Testing of Autonomous Vehicles(허가 받은 기업들)

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/…/detail/vr/autonomous/testing

DMV.CA.GOV - Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2016

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/…/autonomo…/disengagement_report_2016

차원용, <Google의 인공지능형 자율주행자동차 - 특허분석 보고서>, 31 Mar 2016.

http://www.itnews.or.kr/?p=18188

 

 

.The 2,578 Problems With Self-Driving Cars

 

 

By Mark Harris

Posted 2 Feb 2017 | 13:00 GMT

 

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photo of driver with hands off the steering wheel

Photo: Graham Walzer/Bloomberg/Getty Images

 

Last year, a self-driving car failed about every 3 hours in California, according to figures filed with the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles.

 

Every January, carmakers testing self-driving cars in California have to detail how many times their vehicles malfunctioned during the preceding year. These so-called disengagement reports detail every time a human safety driver had to quickly take control of their car, either due to hardware or software failure or because the driver suspected a problem.

 

The reports—detailing 2,578 failures among the nine companies that carried out road-testing in 2016—give a unique glimpse into how much testing the different companies are doing, where they are doing it, and what is going wrong. None of this year’s disengagements resulted in an accident.

chart shows autonomous car "disengagements" based on California DMV reports

Image: Mark Harris; Source: California DMV

Alphabet’s spin-out company Waymo [Google in chart above] still has by far the biggest testing program—its 635,868 miles of testing accounted for over 95 percent of all miles driven by self-driving cars in California in 2016. Waymo’s fleet of 60 self-driving cars reported a total of 124 disengagements, 51 of them due to software problems. That represents a sharp reduction in disengagements from the previous year, from 0.8 disengagements for every 1,000 miles of autonomous driving down to just 0.2.

 

Bosch, by contrast, reported over 1,400 disengagements while covering just 983 miles in three vehicles—equivalent to a hefty 1,467 disengagements for every 1,000 miles of driving. But that doesn’t mean Waymo’s cars are 8,000 times safer than Bosch’s, as every company has its own way of counting disengagements.

 

For instance, Waymo does not count every single time the driver grabs the wheel to take over from the robotic chauffeur, which it admits happens many thousands of times annually. Instead, the company later simulates what would have happened if the human had not jumped in—and only reports disengagements where the car would have done something unsafe. It calculates that if its drivers had taken no action at all, nine disengagements in 2016 would have led to the car hitting an obstacle or another road user. That is down from 13 the previous year, despite covering 50 percent more miles.

 

“Waymo’s report would seem to suggest substantial improvement,” says Bryant Walker-Smith, a professor at the University of South Carolina. “But I’d want to know whether Waymo’s system could handle any of the system-initiated disengagements by achieving a minimal risk condition, say by pulling off to the side of the road, rather than immediately disengaging.”

 

The other problem with comparing disengagement rates is that different companies are using California’s testing permits for different things. only Waymo and Cruise Automation, now owned by General Motors, have large, general-purpose testing programs. In its first year on the state’s roads, Cruise’s two dozen cars went from covering less than 5 miles in June 2015 to over 2,000 miles in September 2016. Its disengagement rate also plummeted over the same period, from over 500 to under 3 per 1,000 miles.

 

No other company drove more 5,000 miles in 2016, and some of the world’s biggest carmakers, including BMW, Ford, and Mercedes-Benz, covered less than 1,000. “The low number of miles, combined with high number of disengagements, suggests that R&D engineers are occasionally using a local vehicle to get real-world performance data useful for a specific project,” says Walker-Smith.

 

Despite holding testing permits, Honda and Volkswagen drove no autonomous miles at all last year on public roads in California, preferring to test on private courses or out of state.

 

Once more, the most mysterious disengagement report is from Tesla. In 2015, the company reported no disengagements at all, suggesting that it either carried out no public testing in California or that its cars were flawless. This year, its report admits 182 disengagements in 550 miles of autonomous driving during 2016.

 

However, all but a handful of those disengagements happened in just four cars over the course of a single long weekend in October, possibly during the filming of a promotional video. Tesla does much of its testing out of state and on test tracks, although it also benefits from receiving millions of miles of road data from thousands of AutoPilot-equipped vehicles owned by its customers.

 

Companies that began autonomous vehicle testing in California in 2016, including startups Zoox, Drive.ai, Faraday Future, and NextEV, will not have to report their disengagement data until this time next year. Uber, which abandoned its pilot program of self-driving Volvos in San Francisco rather than apply for a testing permit, is currently testing in Arizona and Pennsylvania, states that do not require companies to report disengagements or failures.